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Can market research be used to align public opinion with facts?

Consulting Centrale

Marketing analysis and fact-based decision-making

Market analysis ought to play a pivotal role in shaping domestic and international policy by means of  knowledgeable electorate. That is our alternative to coach those that care concerning the information relatively than the leisure offered by media opinion hosts who deal with driving viewership or readership. On this article, I’ll share an instance using information from the U.S. Energy Info Administration.

The influence of small analytical omissions 

Public excoriation of Russian oil imports is at the moment middle stage. Misconceptions about U.S. petroleum manufacturing and our import and export positions are pervasive. Unfortunately, stretched small information or analytical omissions for political theater lead to public outcries and legislative/government management errors.

Information from the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) is great; it’s present, detailed, simply accessible and offers unbiased statistics and evaluation. It’s fertile floor for researchers, reporters and policy makers to assist fact-based selections.

1. The shift from Saudi Arabian to Russian petroleum imports.

Information reveals some occasions that shifted imports from Saudi Arabia to Russia. These occasions occurred in 2018 (Figure 1). A attainable contributing objective was a government department desire for geopolitical realignment.

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There was a shift to Russian oil imports within the 2009-2010 timeframe. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) minimize production by 4.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) to shift prices. Russia was not a part of OPEC, filled consumption demand and counterbalanced OPEC’s market power. As a aspect observe, in 2016, Russia and Saudi Arabia drove an alliance between OPEC, Russia and different oil-producing international locations to handle the oversupply of petroleum as a result of elevated U.S. production.

2. Dependence on petroleum imports.

Longitudinal data (Figure 2) since 1950 from EIA reveals a fast rise in United States consumption over the previous 7 decades. Increasing the imports filled the thirst for petroleum until it ignited United States production.

In last 2 years, the U.S. exported 8.51 MMb/d and imported around 7.86 MMB/d. Higher exporter than importer. Nevertheless, our improved place was the results of consumption falling quicker than production. Consumption dropped 12% to around 20.5 MMb/d versus 18.1 MMb/d in 2019 as a result of COVID-19’s hostile financial affect (Figure 2, A).

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The Power imports will proceed to play a major function in fueling our financial system. Sadly, our historical past was selecting power suppliers which can be either “dangerous actors” or real enemies.

The problem for our profession is to successfully use the various out there vehicles to advertise our worth as truth-tellers to all stakeholders that affect and make policy choices.

 

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